Climatic variation and the risk that it entails, is a key feature of agriculture in the semi-arid tropics (Gill, 1991).  Although farmers strive to develop strategies to minimize the impacts of these variations, low productivity and food insecurity are a result.  In the Andes, producers are faced with periodic drought, frosts and El Niño events (Washington-Allen, 1993).  These events shape the management of crops and livestock, agricultural productivity and total rural income.  The research outlined below addresses three questions related to this issue:  1) What have farmers developed as successful strategies to cope with climatic variation in the Andean region; 2) How do farmers currently use information from forecasts and local  sources to make production and consumption decisions; and 3) What mechanisms and institutions facilitate or constrain the utilization of information about climatic risk.  This research will identify current household strategies to cope with risk and describe how climatic data is used to reduce losses in order to improve food security in Andes.

Climatic perturbations in the Andean Region

Agriculture is the main source of income for rural people in the Altiplano of Bolivia and Peru, and climatic perturbations are the determining factor for agricultural production in the region.  (Le Tacon, 1989).  The region is characterized with high diurnal temperature variations, frost risks, low and irregular precipitation and high risks of drought during the growing season (Francois et al., n.d.). Droughts also increase the occurrence of frost, compounding the risks faced by farmers. Scientists and farmers associate typical El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events with drought in this region (Woodman 1997; Washington-Allen, 1993; Céspedes and Rodríguez 1995; Ccama, 1991). 

Potatoes are the main staple and an important cash crop in the region (Ccama, 1991; Montes de Oca, 1992). The production of commercial varieties of potatoes is especially sensitive to droughts and frost. Local varieties, are more resistant to these perturbations and used for subsistence.  Work is currently being conducted to improve the prediction of precipitation in the Lake Titicaca Basin.  Preliminary results show that it is possible to forecast rainfall from January through March several months in advance (Personal communication with Pablo Lagos, Instituto Geofisico del Perú).  These advances create the possibility of improving farm decision making in the region in ways that will enhance food security. However, will these forecasts improve or change decision making?

 Relevance

Andean agricultural  production systems are sustained by a combination of crop and livestock activities. The Andean region is marked by food shortages and has some of the lowest levels of per capita caloric intake in this hemisphere (van Haeften 1996a). Two thirds of the rural residents of Peru=s highlands are poor, nearly half of them are extremely poor, and their Bolivian counterparts live under similar conditions(van Haeften,  1996b).    The extreme poverty of the region and periodic natural disasters have forced  thousands of people to migrate to urban slums and to the jungle.  Often these migrants provide the labor force for drug production in the jungle.

A study conducted in three agropastoral communities in the Altiplano of  Bolivia showed 30% of children under five to be malnourished (Murillo and Markowitz,1995).  Their nutritional status is directly linked to the ability of their parents to produce food, and the ability to manage drought and frost is a key element to improving the quality of life of rural families.

Balancing livestock, with the production of forages, food crops such as potato and quinoa production, is an important part of any strategy designed to improve food security in the Andean region. Systems research shows that sheep in this region  are particularly important in the most vulnerable segments of the population (Valdivia, Dunn and Jetté, 1996).   Livestock are not only an important source of income in the risky Andean environment, but they are used to reduce the risks inherent in crop production and provide the reserves needed to recover from natural disasters.  The manipulation of the family=s crop and livestock portfolios is an important risk management strategy.

The value of forecasts in decision making in a peasant agriculture context

Farmers in the Andes use their traditional knowledge to predict the level of rainfall for the next season, some times eight months in advance. Weather observations at specified times, as well as other signs, such as birds and insects, are used to forecast climate (Hatch, 1981). The ability to predict correctly is important because it affects the quantity of fallow fields that will be plowed, the type of crops and varieties that will be planted, and the type of inputs that will be used (Huanca, Markowitz and Jetté, 1994; Céspedes and Rodríguez, 1995).  In other words, the production strategy and corresponding portfolio are defined by those predictions.  Market prices, the  quantity and quality of land labor and animals, are important, especially in determining the proportions that will be kept for consumption and that will be sold (Valdivia et al. 1995), but climate is the driving force. 

Climatic information is valuable when it contributes to decisions that improve earnings or reduce losses (Nicholls,1996).  Most studies on the use of forecasts have concentrated on temperate developed countries, with reliable markets for inputs and commodities and insurance. They have focused more on the benefits of forecasts rather than the costs of using them (Nicholls,1996).

This study considers the value of information under conditions of food insecurity, imperfect or incomplete markets, unequal access to information, and production decisions that are conditioned on ensuring a certain level of food security (Kusterer, 1989; Ellis, 1993; Valdivia et al., 1996; Dunn et al., 1996). In the Andes farmers cannot rely on markets to access food and inputs on a timely and affordable way. As a consequence, any objective of maximizing net returns is conditioned on not endangering their present level of welfare. This means that most farmers will not engage in activities that will endanger their present living standards (Kusterer, 1989).

We propose that access to climate and weather forecasts will reduce uncertainty, and allow farmers to choose portfolios that improve their returns. This study will contribute to measuring the value of improved information for  management of resources and household portfolios and will identify the groups that have the capacity to use this information. Production and consumption decisions of farmers and their families, and the role of information and traditional knowledge (Hatch, 1981), are necessary to determine the ways in which climatic predictions may be used to improve production strategies shifting the portfolio to more reliable crop varieties and agricultural activities.  The next section addresses first what we know about decisions in semiarid environments, and what we have learned about the Altiplano.

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