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Climate Variability and Household Welfare in the Andes:
Farmer adaptation and
use of weather forecasts in decision making

Corinne Valdivia and Jere Gilles
University of Missouri - Columbia

Climatic variability, characterized by periodic droughts and El Niño events, and weather events such as frosts, affect the production and consumption decisions of rural households throughout the Andean region. Both are important abiotic factors affecting the choice and mix of crops and livestock, their productivity, and therefore household food security. Important food crops, such as potato and quinoa, and livestock are affected by these events. Our research aims to answer the following questions: 1) What have farmers developed as successful strategies to cope with climatic variation in the Andean region; 2) How do farmers currently use information from forecasts and local sources to make production and consumption decisions; and 3) What mechanisms and institutions facilitate or constrain the utilization of information about climatic risk.

Our unit of analysis is the rural farm household, in its relation with markets and their communities. We focus our research on decision making, analyzing household production strategies, the portfolio of economic activities, and the role of diversification in mitigating risk.. Our purpose is to identify distinct groups of farmer strategies, evaluate these in terms of risk, productivity and net returns. To measure the effect of drought and frost on production we compare data from three years in the case of Bolivia (1993, 1995, 1999), and two in the case of Peru, and contrast these outcomes with those generated by existing and modified crop and livestock models, to evaluate actual economic returns, and the potential returns of incorporating climate and weather forecasts.

We will conduct our research at two sites in the Altiplano region, Aroma in Bolivia, and Puno in Peru. Our research the first year focuses on identifying household production strategies and economic portfolios in Bolivia near an El Niño event, and compare results to previous years. Identified factors that affect use of information will be studied the second year through case studies. The approach to evaluate household strategies will be validated in Peru by conducting a similar survey the second year, in order to identify groups of farmers with distinct economic portfolios. We will also identify in Peru the factors affecting the use of climatic information and weather forecasts through in-depth case studies the third year. The research will be conducted in collaboration with the International Potato Center, the Centro de Investigación de Recursos Naturales y Medio Ambiente (CIRNMA), the United Nations Development Program Bolivia currently assessing the impact of El Niño 1997-1998, and PROINPA, a foundation promoting research on Andean crops, and farmers from rural communities in the region.

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